Event Summary
Cooperation and Convergence – The MSC Core Group Meeting in Cairo
From October 26 to 28, the Munich Security Conference continued its Core Group Meeting series with an event in Cairo. More than 80 senior decision-makers and experts from Africa, the Middle East, Europe, and beyond came together to discuss common challenges and to identify areas for regional cooperation. A second Core Group Meeting was held in Doha (October 28-29). Both meetings mark the start of an event series in the region.
From Libya to the Sahel and spanning all the way to the Horn of Africa, a number of hotspots confront the African continent with a volatile security situation. These are also increasingly linked to security dynamics in the Middle East and renewed great power competition globally. In addition, socio-economic challenges in the region converge with transnational threats and further complicate efforts for conflict de-escalation and resolution. The consequences are grave, both for the countries themselves and their neighborhood, including Europe.
In order to discuss the interconnected security challenges that affect Africa and the Middle East, the Munich Security Conference decided to host two back-to-back Core Group Meetings: The first in Cairo, Egypt; the second one in Doha, Qatar. Together, the events served as a kick-off for a series of high-level events in the region, which will be continued with meetings in Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
More than 80 participants joined the meeting in Cairo. Among the many high-ranking decision-makers from the region were the President of Egypt Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi as well as Foreign Minister Sameh Hassan Shoukry, Kenya's Cabinet Secretary of Defense Raychelle Omamo, Niger's Foreign Minister Kalla Ankourao, Uganda's Foreign Minister Sam Kutesa, Sudan's Foreign Minister Asma Abdalla and Secretary-General of the Arab League Ahmed Aboul-Gheit. Among the participants from Europe was a large delegation of German parliamentarians including German Deputy Foreign Minister Niels Annen. The MSC Core Group Meeting in Cairo was co-hosted by the Government of Egypt and was supported by the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the League of Arab States.
Spoilers, predators, and partners: External influence and regional cooperation
One of the major themes discussed in Cairo was the impact of outside intervention in conflicts in North Africa and the Sahel. Participants disagreed on whether such interventions were desirable. The case of Libya offered an example of the ambiguity of external influence: On the one hand, the internationalization of the conflict is one of its key drivers. At the same time, external efforts – such as the current initiative by the German government – are needed to build conditions conducive to de-escalation. During the CGM, Niels Annen underlined the importance of the region: "In Libya, we have seen conflict escalate into fighting. Left unattended to, the conflict will most likely become even more drawn out, divisions will increase, and stability of neighboring countries and the whole region will be put at risk."
"Don't give up hope. In international relations nothing is impossible."
At the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, a similar dynamic is unfolding – albeit one that is trending in a more positive direction. The area is becoming a new security arena that connects African and Middle Eastern states, as well as great powers, not only in geographic terms but also politically, economically and security-wise. Recently, this sub-region has seen hopeful signs such as strong economic development, peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and the transition in Sudan. At the same time, however, new geopolitical interests are emerging as great power competition is building up at the Horn and tensions from the Gulf States are extending into the sub-region. As interest in the area will not cease, dialogue between all actors is necessary to manage the profound change the region is undergoing. During the discussions in Cairo, participants disagreed substantially on how regional cooperation on security and other issues should and could be designed, not only along the Horn of Africa but also North Africa, the Sahel and the Middle East in general. In his concluding remarks, Wolfgang Ischinger, Chairman of the MSC, thus stressed the importance of regional cooperation and offered some optimism: "Don't give up hope," he said. "In international relations nothing is impossible." As an example, he pointed to the history of Europe, where East and West managed to decrease tensions at the height of the Cold War through the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe (CSCE).
Human Security and Transnational Security: Sustaining Peace
In addition to the main program, two roundtables were held in the framework of the Core Group Meeting. Cairo saw the MSC's first Roundtable on Sustaining Peace. Part of the MSC's Human Security Series, this new track focusses on how to make peace and make it last. The Cairo roundtable, held in partnership with the German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development, focused on the recent transition in Sudan and how to best support it. For instance, participants agreed that removing Sudan from the list of state sponsors of terrorism was essential for the peace process and resolving the country's economic crisis. On the sidelines of the event, Raychelle Omamo underlined the general role of African states in guaranteeing sustaining peace: "They should support each other in this process. We all want a transition to societies that are more open, societies that are able to deliver public goods to our people."
The Transnational Security Roundtable dealt with the security implications of the newly established African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which is planned to be rolled out in a phased approach, starting in July 2020. Participants agreed that the short-term impacts of free trade zones can be rather challenging for the involved countries, heavily affecting the poorest ones. However, the long-term impact can be positive. In order to reduce illicit trade and its associated risks, incentives for illicit trade need to be tackled right from the beginning. In addition, technology can play an important role in tackling illicit flows. PMI Impact serves as a Knowledge Partner of the MSC's Transnational Security Series.
Second Core Group Meeting in Doha: Avenues towards de-escalation in the Middle East
The MSC convened a subsequent Core Group Meeting in Doha, co-hosted by the Government of Qatar, on October 28 and 29. The Doha meeting acted as a platform for timely and crucial discussions on de-escalation in the conflicts over Syria and Yemen, as well as on broader regional concerns of proliferation, cyber and energy security.
