MSC 2022 Recap: Defense

Unsurprisingly, most discussions on defense issues at the Munich Security Conference 2022 were dominated by one theme: the ongoing Ukraine crisis and its repercussions for the European security architecture. Warnings of an escalation of the crisis co-existed with cautious hopes that the worst could be averted. At the same time, leaders reassured to be ready for and united in the worst case, as Kamala Harris, Vice President of the United States, expressed: "We have worked intensively with many of you in this room to ensure that we are prepared to move forward with consequences. We have prepared together economic measures that will be swift, severe, and united." Nevertheless, only few days after world leaders gathered at the MSC, Russia launched an invasion into Ukraine. According to EU High Representative Josep Borrell, "these are among the darkest hours for Europe since the end of World War II." 

It is only logical that much attention at the conference was dedicated to this immediate crisis which required immediate addressing. The war in Ukraine will, as many predict, reshape European security significantly. It is, however, also telling for the strategic position the transatlantic partners have found themselves in for a long time: one where they are forced to act reactively. With their attention absorbed by immediate crises, the US and Europe should not lose sight of long-term challenges and neglect to develop long-term security strategies. The Ukraine crisis is certainly acute right now, but the transatlantic partners have to prepare for the fact, that this will not be a conflict that only lasts a few weeks, but the near future will be characterized by confrontational interactions with Russia. 

The US and Europe, however, seem to struggle with developing long-term security strategies. Last summer, European and US forces conducted a chaotic withdrawal after a twenty-year engagement in Afghanistan. The reason according to US representative Elissa Slotkin, speaking at the MSC 2022: "We never had one twenty-year plan; instead, we had twenty one-year plans." In similar fashion, we have now seen Germany pulling the plug on Nord Stream 2 after years of investing in it. Long-term geopolitical strategies seem a rarity in the West nowadays. 

It became clear at the MSC 2022 that for the transatlantic partners to regain the geopolitical initiative, they need to address long-term challenges proactively before such challenges manifest themselves as immediate crises. Several of these long-term challenges were discussed at the conference in various fora; nonetheless, Russia still played a prominent role in those debates. 

Regarding nuclear security, long-term challenges NATO needs to address are the massive expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal, as well as Russia’s superior integration of its nuclear and conventional forces compared to NATO. This was discussed extensively at a roundtable discussion on nuclear security, as well as at NATO’s lunch event on the new strategic concept. In addition, the sceptical attitude vis-à-vis nuclear weapons among populations of NATO Allies was discussed as a challenge NATO needs to address by better communicating the necessity of nuclear deterrence. By outlining long-term strategies for these issues, NATO can ensure that when a new immediate security crisis presents itself, NATO faces it with a clear and thought-through nuclear posture. NATO’s new strategic concept could serve as a basis for this new strategy. 

Discussions on strategic stability and the future of arms control have also been overshadowed by the Ukraine crisis and its implications for the European security architecture. The escalating East-West tensions have certainly made renewed discussions on arms control between the US and Russia ever more important, but also ever more difficult. The European security architecture, however, has not been stable for years. With the erosion of central documents, such as the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and the only remaining treaty limiting the US’ and Russia’s massive nuclear arsenals, the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which had been extended only two days before it was set to expire, there is currently little left to regulate strategic stability. When considering the revival of arms control with a long-term perspective, the discussions at the MSC 2022 showed that it is not only a question of limiting the numbers of intermediate- and short-range missiles of the US’ and Russia’s arsenals. Moreover, it is about which additional weapons, which states and even non-state actors were to be included in possible new treaties, and what kind of binding nature a new instrument should have. In this regard, the integration of conventional and nuclear arsenals, emerging technologies of war, such as hypersonic glide missiles, as well as in particular new possibilities through cyber measures pose challenges to the way the international community approached arms control for decades. Furthermore, China dramatically increasing its nuclear arsenal and developing new weapons in recent years, reflects the need to include China in arms control negotiations.  

During the discussions on the future of European Foreign and Security Policy, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, pointed out that "we have to increase our support [for] Ukraine in the short-term, and we have to put the basis of a stronger security and defense policy." He further added, that the European Union would need a clear understanding of the medium- and long-term challenges and how to address them, provided by the Strategic Compass. With this, Josep Borrell showed, that reacting to acute crises does not contradict with taking a far-sighted perspective and not putting long-term challenges on the back burner. The following discussions made clear: Besides the escalating East-West tensions, but also other acute crises such as in the Sahel region, the EU should not lose sight of challenges such as cyber and hybrid attacks, geopolitical confrontations with China, the prevention of European neighborhood countries’ slipping into authoritarianism, and the technological arms race. It should concentrate on strengthening the EU’s resilience and European military capacities and interoperability, to make sure that Europe is able to face the crises and threats together, also in collaboration with NATO. 

In order to manoeuvre themselves out of their reactive position, the transatlantic partners must develop long-term strategies for long-term problems. Several challenges must be overcome for this to be possible: the US and European states will have to convince their populations that security challenges must be addressed before they develop into immediate security crises. Only then can the transatlantic partners seize the initiative on the global stage once more and prepare for the security challenges of our time. As Josep Borrell rightly said: "We need to avoid looking defensive […]. We have to move towards the 21st century, avoiding the mistakes of the 20th century."

Isabell Kump is a Policy Advisor with the Munich Security Conference (MSC). Before joining the MSC, she was Research Assistant in the Global Issues Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin and Program Officer at SWP Brussels. She studied Sociology and Political Science in Erlangen-Nuremberg, Münster, and Östersund. During her studies, she gained work experience in, amongst others, various institutes for social research and policy consulting, and the SWP Brussels office. In addition to her work at MSC, she recently published an article on the framing of health in the United Nations Security Council.  

Jintro Pauly is a Junior Policy Advisor with the Munich Security Conference (MSC). Before joining the MSC, he interned at the Office of the Political Advisor at NATO HQ Joint Force Command Brunssum and was active in local politics in his hometown Maastricht in the Netherlands. He studied International Affairs (MA) at the Hertie School in Berlin, Public Administration and Political Science (MSc) at the Radboud University in Nijmegen, and Liberal Arts & Sciences (BA) at Maastricht University.