MSC Convenes 2024 European Defense Roundtable in Kyiv

This event was organized in cooperation with Yalta European Strategy (YES), which hosted its annual meeting in Kyiv subsequently. The MSC brought a group of about fifty high-level decision-makers, think-tankers, academics, and industrial representatives to Kyiv to enable a direct dialogue between them and their Ukrainian counterparts. Travelling jointly by night train from Poland, the group arrived in Kyiv in the early morning for a day of topical discussions.

In the first session, participants focused on the short term, discussing what challenges are most pressing for Ukraine and what assistance the country most urgently needs from its international partners. Many participants raised the issue of air defense, as Ukraine still lacks sufficient systems to defend its population from Russian air attacks. The question of whether partners should allow Ukraine to use the delivered weapons to strike the Russian military airfields from which these attacks are launched also came up in the discussion. While this issue is generally controversial, there was widespread agreement among participants that restrictions should be lifted, allowing Ukraine to strike Russian targets in accordance with international law.

More controversial was the question whether Ukraine’s western neighbors should help defend the airspace over western Ukraine with their own air defense systems. Some participants highlighted potential risks while others were supportive, arguing that it would alleviate Ukraine’s burden and help protect its citizens. Several members of the group also pointed to the recent violations of Romania’s and Latvia’s airspace by Russian Shahed loitering munitions (“kamikaze drones”). They stated that NATO should protect its own airspace better from Russian aerial threats and contemplated whether intercepting and eliminating Russian drones and missiles over western Ukraine, before they can cross into NATO airspace, might be in NATO’s own interest as well.

Finally, the group considered the role that negotiations should play in ending Russia’s war against Ukraine. While there was a broad consensus that diplomacy has an important role to play, several participants cautioned against pressuring Ukraine to rush into negotiations with Russia, thereby undermining its bargaining position. They rather argued that partners should do everything to put Ukraine in a strong position militarily and politically, allowing it to negotiate a just peace on Ukrainian terms.

The second session concentrated on defense industrial cooperation between Ukraine and its partners. The aim was to explore how support to Ukraine could be structured in the long term. A recurrent point was the potential of Ukraine’s defense industry. With the experience it has gained and the innovation potential it has shown in the past 2.5 years, Ukraine could become a defense industrial frontrunner and important supplier for other European countries in the longer term. It has the capacity to significantly ramp up its own production but lacks the necessary funding. Several participants stressed that Ukraine’s partners should invest directly in the Ukrainian defense industry and encourage joint ventures between Ukrainian and other European defense companies. It was underlined that this would allow Ukraine to produce cost-efficiently, simplify logistics, and grant it greater independence.

The discussion also touched on the various EU initiatives in support of Ukraine, as highlighted in a Munich Security Analysis published shortly before the Roundtable. Participants welcomed the first European Defense Industrial Strategy and the fact that it almost treats Ukraine as a member state. However, many questioned where the necessary resources would come from, given fiscal constraints and difficult domestic debates about budgetary priorities. Some participants expressed concern that European governments might use the planned 50-billion-dollar G7 loan, backed by frozen Russian assets in the EU, as an excuse to reduce their own assistance to Ukraine. Spread over several years and across a range of priorities, this loan will be insufficient to meet Ukraine’s needs. Many participants therefore highlighted the need for additional, long-term financing options to strengthen Europe’s defense technological and industrial base and support Ukraine.

The European Defense Roundtable highlighted the importance of direct exchanges between Ukrainian decision-makers and experts and their counterparts in other European countries. The MSC will keep Russia’s war against Ukraine and its implications for European defense and security high on the agenda of its main conference as well as its other events and publications throughout the year.