MSC 2022 Recap: Technology

From February 18 to 20, world leaders, decision-makers, and experts gathered for the 58th Munich Security Conference (MSC) at Hotel Bayerischer Hof. The Munich Security Conference was unmistakably the most high-tech iteration of the gathering yet – both in substance and by virtue of its set-up. Hybrid events with physical and virtual participants were omnipresent, with almost 24 total hours of live-streamed footage from the conference program.

Of the 2022 core agenda, an unprecedentedly large share was dedicated to technology issues: from supply chain security for high-tech hardware to cyber and hybrid warfare, and technologies from artificial intelligence (AI) to cryptocurrencies with their security risks and opportunities. An additional distinctive characteristic of the technology discussions at the MSC 2022 was the marked absence of the elephant in the room that overshadowed many other discussions at the conference: Russia’s looming invasion of Ukraine. The lack of talk about Russia in the conference’s tech programming – with the notable exception of cyberattacks and disinformation, which Russia is using extensively against Ukraine – reflects a sense that it is far from a leading player on developing the kind of cutting-edge and emerging tech that captured participants’ attention. When it came to these technologies – notably semiconductors, big data, AI, or quantum computing – it was competition with China that animated a large part of the debate.

This was the case, for instance, in discussions around semiconductors that featured prominently at the conference. Both policymakers and industry leaders – like Thierry Breton, EU Commissioner for Internal Market, and Cristiano Amon, CEO of US chip giant Qualcomm, who spoke on a panel together – underscored the critical strategic role of microchips for current economic stability and technological advances. China is investing heavily in bolstering its domestic chip sector to become immune to the kind of disruptions that have rocked the chip market during the pandemic. At the MSC 2022, representatives from the US, Europe, and other high-tech economies asked themselves whether to pursue that same goal – and how. Policymakers appeared unified in their determination to attract chip manufacturing to "friendly" shores; industry heads cautioned against intervening too strongly in a finely tuned international value chain. Questions therefore remain whether an internationally coordinated and complementary approach to creating additional capacity and resilience in the chip supply chain is feasible – and whether it will be embraced by industry.

Another key theme at the MSC 2022 was formulating appropriate policy responses to novel and fast-developing technologies. In discussions with both public officials and industry representatives, the opportunities and threats posed by these technologies were discussed extensively. Speakers like former Google CEO Eric Schmidt and Palantir CEO Alex Karp emphasized the massive potential of artificial intelligence to boost security and defense capabilities, whilst also recognizing the serious ethical questions that ever more capable AI will confront societies with. Schmidt argued that, as AI technology becomes more powerful, "eventually, we will have a proliferation problem for AI that is similar to what we have dealt with with nuclear weapons." Next to that of AI, the potential of quantum computing was also highlighted in multiple discussion sessions. A breakthrough in quantum computing, some participants cautioned, could come sooner than widely expected. In this case, encryption would be among the first systems to be disrupted – with massive implications for data security and national security – putting the spotlight on solutions for “post-quantum” cryptography.

However, the tone at MSC 2022 was not entirely focused on risks. At a main-stage event on cryptocurrencies, the CEO and founder of the cryptocurrencies exchange FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried, and EU Commissioner for Home Affairs Ylva Johansson exchanged their views on the role cryptocurrencies could play in the financial system. While Johansson cautioned that cryptocurrencies are used extensively to facilitate illicit financial flows which are extremely difficult for authorities to control, Bankman-Fried also emphasized how cryptocurrencies make the financial system more accessible to people currently disenfranchised by it.     

Many discussions at the MSC 2022 on how to regulate novel technologies eventually boiled down to a well-known dilemma: democracies want to regulate tech in a way that is consistent with their values. But doing so may create obstacles for innovative potential and cede the advantage in the technology race to China. To overcome this dilemma, various participants suggested doubling down on pro-democratic rules for technologies like AI and going global with them. As Eva Maydell, Member of the European Parliament, put it: "I don't want us to set a gold standard. It would be much better if we set a global standard." By this logic, proactively establishing standards around the world – including in the Global South, where China's tech sector is making major inroads – would serve as a normative counterweight to China’s pace of innovation and unfettered adoption of new technology. This would mean aiming high, considering the slow progress even high-tech democracies like the US and Europe have made in regulating AI and other technologies. However, a take-away from the MSC 2022 is also that, across the Atlantic, the level of ambition and the willingness to invest resources for the technology race has risen.

Jintro Pauly is a Junior Policy Advisor with the Munich Security Conference (MSC). Before joining the MSC, he interned at the Office of the Political Advisor at NATO HQ Joint Force Command Brunssum and was active in local politics in his hometown Maastricht in the Netherlands. He studied International Affairs (MA) at the Hertie School in Berlin, Public Administration and Political Science (MSc) at the Radboud University in Nijmegen, and Liberal Arts & Sciences (BA) at Maastricht University. 

Randolf Carr is Interim Head of Policy at the Munich Security Conference (MSC), additionally responsible for its Global Order and Technology Programs. Before joining the MSC, he studied Political Communication and International Relations in Glasgow, Dresden, and Saint Petersburg. During his studies, he gained experience working at the German Federal Foreign Office, the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), and the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies (AICGS), among others. His recent published work for the MSC deals with the Indo-Pacific as well as technology policy and innovation.