MSC Co-Hosts High-Level Roundtable on Energy Security in Stavanger

Under the theme “Imagining the Geopolitics of a Net Zero World”, the Munich Security Conference (MSC) co-hosted an energy security roundtable with the Offshore Northern Seas Foundation (ONS) on August 25 and 26, 2024. The event on the eve of the bi-annual ONS Conference, one of the world’s largest energy fora, brought together around 50 participants from various sectors, including politics, industry, academia, and civil society, as well as different countries of both the Global North and South.

The sessions showed a strong general agreement among the participants on the need to combat climate change. Yet, there were marked differences on the right pace and design of an energy transition that allows to reconcile energy security, affordability, and sustainability. While the decreasing costs for clean energy accelerates the transition away from fossil fuels globally, speakers pointed to two complicating factors: renewables’ high upfront costs for installation and grid infrastructure and the expected rise in energy demand.

Discussants emphasized that in regions, where large parts of the population still lack access to electricity, the decarbonization agenda needs to improve that access and go hand in hand with stronger economic prospects. In this context, they highlighted the green growth potential in African countries – and the main obstacles: a glaring lack of investment and the high cost of capital. Although home to the world’s best renewable resources, only two percent of global investments in clean energy in the last two decades were made in Africa. Speakers called to revise the current investment risk perception and develop international financing mechanisms to mobilize private capital.

Participants argued that energy security and the green transition have never been “as geopolitically charged as today.”  The Russian weaponization of energy ties led to a major reshuffling of fossil fuel trade flows, increasingly reflecting geopolitical faut lines. A further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could lead to supply disruptions and higher prices. The aim to reduce dependence on petrostates and vulnerability to the vagaries of oil and gas markets fostered the shift to clean energy. Yet, speakers pointed out that the securitization of energy extends to green markets. As green technologies form the backbone of future economic competitiveness, they are at the heart of the geopolitical competition between China and the US and its partners. Beijing’s dominant position in green tech manufacturing and critical mineral supply chains provides it with economic and geopolitical leverage.

Participants from Europe, the US, and India criticized that “we have allowed ourselves to be so heavily dependent on China” and stressed the need to diversify supply chains, including by fostering domestic mining and manufacturing via industrial policies. Discussants from low-income economies however viewed this renaissance of industrial policy critically. As they expect trade distortion and investment diversion, they feared a “devastating impact on their nascent industries”. From their perspective, the declared goal, repeatedly stated by European and US leaders, to complement their support for domestic industries with strong, mutually beneficial international partnerships remains unmet. The main point of criticism was that these partnerships were still “all about extraction” rather than processing and manufacturing. Speakers concluded that two conditions must be met to use de-risking from China as a window of opportunity for building positive-sum cooperation models: support for resource-rich countries to move up the value chain as well as high ESG standards.  

In the discussions, investments in recycling and substitution came up as other key elements to reduce critical mineral dependencies. In a Night Cap session, participants delved further into the recent developments in deep-sea mining. While some speakers portrayed it as a major opportunity to meet the rising minerals demand, it was also clear from the debate that significant questions remain regarding the environmental risks and the equitable sharing of seabed resources

To advance the energy transition and green growth, the need to build international partnerships and foster global cooperation across geopolitical divides came up in all sessions – as did the importance of deepening collaboration between governments, businesses, and civil society.

The MSC will continue to facilitate this, including at the upcoming Munich Leaders Meeting in Brazil, the UN Climate Change in Conference (COP29) in Baku in November, and the Munich Security Conference in February 2025.

Within the framework of its Sustainability Program, the MSC regularly hosts high-level events to advance the debate at the intersections of governance, the environment, security, and prosperity. This entails addressing the multiple security dimensions of climate change and a rapidly transforming geopolitical order.