MSC @ COP28

As climate change is exacerbating security risks around the world, candid discussions between different sectors on how to foster cooperation and enable action are urgently necessary. Building on the MSC discussions at COP26 in Glasgow and COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh, the events at COP28 form part of the MSC’s Sustainability Program, of which the nexus between climate and security constitutes a central pillar.

The MSC kicked-off this year’s COP activities on December 1 with a two-part High Level Segment in cooperation with the COP Presidency, the United Arab Emirates. In a panel, leaders came together to emphasize the link between climate and security and assume joint leadership. At the start, UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen, highlighted how much the world is still falling short of the climate targets, impacting the entire world. NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, then emphasized that climate change acts as a threat multiplier and how, at the same time, conflict makes it harder to combat climate change. Sustaining peace and climate action must therefore go hand in hand. This point was strengthened by Icelandic Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir who called for increased climate finance, and backed by German Climate Envoy Jennifer Morgan who argued that “every dollar invested in mitigation, is also a dollar invested in peace.” The Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, pointed to the risks of ecocide and of energy being used as a weapon of warcraft, highlighting yet another security dimension. John Kerry, the US Climate Envoy, closed the round by emphasizing that “there should be no discussion of the climate crisis without addressing the security implications.” 

These public statements were followed by an off-the record roundtable with participants from the diplomatic, defense, development, and peacekeeping communities, to discuss how to align priorities and address the linkages between climate and security. Participants shared how they are witnessing climate-induced security risks in their respective fields and highlighted the need to jointly address these challenges. One aspect was to enhance the capacity to reduce the environmental footprint of peacekeeping operations. Another proposal, which needs further exploration, was to link climate, humanitarian, and security finance to enable greater effectiveness and receive broader support. Participants highlighted the crucial need for such investments to reach the most vulnerable populations. 16 out of the 25 countries most vulnerable to climate change are facing conflicts, often closing them off from much-needed official climate finance channels. The Horn of Africa was mentioned several times as a particularly fragile region where the impact of climate change is felt immensely, threatening to enhance fragility and instability. Another example raised was the violent outbreak in Lebanon over water sources in mountain areas. The discussions illustrated the importance of embedding a climate security perspective into all levels of foreign policy.

Re-watch the full discussion:

The discussion during this dinner event focused on the possibilities for climate cooperation despite geopolitical obstacles, rising tensions, and conflicts in many regions. The harsh ripple-effects of climate change are felt everywhere, especially in poorer countries which are disproportionately affected. One discussant highlighted how important it is not to allow a fatigue of multilateral cooperation to set in. The discussion shed light on climate-induced displacement, which will increase significantly if no action is taken. A controversial point in the debate was whether migration may serve as a climate adaptation tool or whether the focus should be on providing solutions for people where they are.

On the morning of December 2, the MSC hosted a discussion with a focus on how to strengthen the resilience of food systems. The fragility of food systems is further exacerbated by climate change and poses a major threat to the lives and livelihoods of many. Extreme weather events and climate-related disasters are leading to crop failures and disrupting food supply chains. The interlinked challenges of climate, food insecurity, and supply chains often affect countries the hardest, which are already struggling with a mounting debt burden or conflict, further increasing their vulnerability and leaving little room to build up resilience. Nisreen Elsaim, a climate activist from Sudan, pointed out that in her country many attempts to improve food systems are hindered by climate hazards. Cindy McCain, Executive Director of WFP, highlighted that early warning systems and climate risk insurance programs need to be made widely available to address these vulnerabilities. As Ricarda Lang, co-head of the German Green Party, put it: “if the crises are interlinked and the solutions are not, it is only going to hit us harder.” However, discussants also acknowledged the difficulties of having to weigh short-term and long-term solutions, while it is necessary to invest heavily in both. A discussant suggested that further highlighting the risk food insecurity poses for social stability and security can help raise the issue on the agenda.

Re-watch the full discussion:

To move the debate forward on one of the most contentious issues at COP28, the MSC co-hosted an off-the-record lunch discussion with Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Ernst & Young (EY) focusing in particular on fossil fuel phase-out. Participants highlighted the problematic nature of fossil fuel subsidies, which still exist in many countries and agreed that it is not enough for governments to develop plans on how to expand green energy, they must also concretize how to phase out fossil fuels. This includes the difficult questions of whose fossil fuels will continue on the market for longer and whether carbon pricing offers a path towards making renewable energy cost competitive. At the heart of the debate is the strained relationship between high-income and low-income countries. Many of the latter want to use their fossil fuels for economic development as the former have done for decades. Offering attractive alternatives and technology cooperation will therefore be crucial to enable a just energy transition for all.

Two days of intense discussions (event overview) highlighted the complex linkages between climate and security. Participants agreed on the need to embed a security perspective in climate action and to further streamline the impacts of climate change in all aspects of foreign and security policy. COP28 was an important place to bring together different communities and sectors to align priorities and enable joint action. The MSC will continue to provide a key platform for debate on climate-related security threats and possible entry points for cooperation, including at the Munich Security Conference 2024 and at COP29.