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New MSC Geoeconomics project ‘Beyond Lose-Lose’: Kick-off at the Munich Security Conference 2025
On 15 February 2025, the Munich Security Conference hosted a roundtable on 'Beyond Lose-Lose: Protecting Trade in an Age of Geoeconomics'. The event marked the launch of a new MSC project, funded by the Stiftung Mercator. Over the next three years, the project titled 'Beyond Lose-Lose' aims to contribute to enabling decision makers to meet current geoeconomic challenges, with a particular focus on the role of the European Union and the so-called Global South.
President Trump’s plans for new export controls and universal tariffs as well as specific tariffs against China could escalate trade tensions that have been mounting for years. Having also long weaponized economic dependencies, China’s retaliation against US measures may well lead to a destructive tit-for-tat dynamic. Europe finds itself under pressure from all sides, simultaneously facing tariffs from the US, receiving diverted Chinese goods at dumping prices, and suffering from internal economic woes. A trade war would inflict vast economic pain on everyone, but disproportionately on countries of the Global South. Higher trade barriers would hamper technology diffusion; increasing prices risk slowing down the roll-out of green technologies. And the erosion of the rules-based trade order based on the World Trade Organization (WTO) would further accelerate, putting an additional economic strain on the global economy. Yet, new opportunities for economic cooperation may arise as states seek to diversify their trade relations.
These issues were the focus of the event, which brought together more than 30 experts from governments, academia, think tanks and the private sector. Participants agreed that the challenges at the intersection of economics and security are greater than ever. Many suggested that the World Trade Organization needs reforming to be both reflective of today’s distribution of power and fit for purpose in this new geoeconomic age. Indeed, several participants highlighted the fact that particularly smaller economies rely on a rules-based, and thus predictable, economic order. Participants agreed that countries should not be exploited as mines for critical raw materials and sources of digital data but must also be helped to develop their own processing capacities. It was also pointed out that the relevance of South-South cooperation will continue to increase in view of the current geopolitical situation.
The next Geoeconomics Roundtable will take place in early summer as part of the Munich Leaders Meeting in Washington D.C.
"How can we overcome a lose-lose dynamic in international trade?"
This is the central question addressed by the Geoeconomics project. Watch the video to see what the roundtable participants suggest.
