Event Summary
Munich Security Conference Hosts Roundtable Discussion on Hybrid Threats in Washington, D.C.
On November 1, 2022, a group of high-ranking government officials, think tank experts, investigative journalists, and representatives from the business community gathered in Washington, D.C. at the invitation of the Munich Security Conference (MSC) for a roundtable discussion on hybrid threats.
On November 1, 2022, the MSC brought together a group of experts, including several former National Security Advisors, heads of the National Security Agency, and senior military leaders, for a roundtable discussion on hybrid threats. The discussion, which took place in Washington DC under Chatham House rules, consisted of two parts.
The first part focussed on cyber threats. The participants discussed the role cyberattacks have played in Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and what lessons other countries can learn from Ukraine’s successful defense against them. Several participants underscored the need to establish back-up IT and communications systems that can be used when primary systems are compromized by a cyberattack. Ukraine’s dependence on SpaceX’s Starlink systems after a Russian cyberattack shut down its communications systems showed the importance of such a back-up infrastructure.
Furthermore, multiple participants warned of the consequences that a breakthrough in quantum computing might have for encryption technology. They advocated a transatlantic approach to prepare cybersecurity infrastructure for the quantum computing era. To enable such an approach, barriers regarding information sharing must be broken down to allow for more international cooperation on this matter. Currently, security regulations often prevent government officials from sharing information on quantum computing technology with foreign counterparts.
Finally, the participants engaged in a discussion on the need to develop offensive cyber capabilities. This need was widely recognized, as the US and its European allies are currently only capable of defending in cyberspace. Nevertheless, several participants argued that if offensive cyber capabilities were to be developed, this would require a discussion to establish under what circumstances they would be used. One participant argued for a “cyber posture review” along the lines of the US nuclear posture review.
Disinformation Campaigns as Hybrid Threats
The second part of the discussion was about other types of hybrid threats, in particular disinformation campaigns, and how these can be countered. Several participants cautioned that one should not take the complexity of hybrid threats as an indicator for their effectiveness. The issue of disinformation spread via so-called deepfakes, for example, receives a lot of attention, but most disinformation is still being spread via simple “shallowfakes”, such as easy-to-disprove false stories that rely on quantity rather than quality to spread false narratives. Many participants argued that in countering disinformation, the focus should be on improving citizens’ digital literacy and increasing transparency regarding the source of online information, rather than on trying to disprove and remove every single false narrative out there. Other participants countered that disinformation can sometimes be so harmful that creating transparency is insufficient and that banning it is in fact necessary. The argument was also made that greater transparency regarding the contribution of algorithms used by social media platforms to the spread of disinformation is required.
The importance of fostering “discursive power” to create strong counternarratives to disinformation campaigns was also stressed by multiple participants. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has shown that, with a well-thought-out communications strategy, Russian disinformation campaigns can be disrupted, and it was argued that the US and Europe should draw lessons from this. Finally, the risk of hybrid threats against critical infrastructure was briefly discussed. Participants called for the proactive inclusion of government officials dealing with energy policy in discussions on national security, to ensure that the respective risks to infrastructure are properly addressed.
The MSC looks back on a constructive discussion on the relevant topic of hybrid threats. This discussion has generated ample new input for future MSC events, as well as for the MSC’s Transatlantic To-Do List.
