Horn of Dilemmas

At the MSC Special Edition in February 2021, world leaders met to open a new chapter of the transatlantic partnership and multilateral cooperation. In her speech, the then German Chancellor Angela Merkel noted: "The relationship with Africa is […] of such strategic importance that it should also be an important topic in the transatlantic discussion." Today, worrying developments in one of Africa’s regional conflict hotspots – the Horn of Africa - require transatlantic partners to heed this call.

In the Horn of Africa, hope and havoc are next-door neighbors. It is a place where a new, young generation is fighting for democracy. It is an arena where regional and global powers compete for influence. And it is also a region where conflicts are threatening the very essence of statehood. In Ethiopia and Sudan, after 30 years of authoritarian rule, two democratic transitions have first blossomed and then faced backlash within a matter of just three years. War in Ethiopia, a derailed democratic transition in Sudan, an escalating border dispute between these two neighbors, and a conflict over the Nile waters between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan represent only a shortlist of the Horn’s complex conflict network.

Europe and the United States must develop a deeper understanding of the Horn of Africa’s conflict landscape and come to terms with the region’s intricate dilemmas. To start with, Europe and the US need to face two realities: first, conflict dynamics in the Horn of Africa impact their very own interests not least with regard to freedom of navigation, peace, security, good governance, and migration – although not to the same extent: Europe’s exposure to turmoil in the region is much more direct. Second, transatlantic partners are not the only external actors who take an interest in the Horn of Africa. Instead, the region is at the center of an intense geopolitical competition. To prevent further deterioration of the region’s conflicts, a coordinated transatlantic agenda is required.

With its Munich Security Briefs, the MSC aims at contributing to ongoing debates on a particular issue within the broad field of international security. A much more concise format than the Munich Security Report, the briefs are meant to provide an overview of an issue or a read-out of a particular MSC event as well as a succinct analysis of its policy implications and strategic consequences. They generally express the opinion of their author(s) rather than any position of the Munich Security Conference.

This Munich Security Brief is part of the MSC’s Road to Munich campaign, which aims to highlight key items on the agenda for renewing transatlantic cooperation. It is informed by the MSC’s Roundtable series on the Horn of Africa, which has been taking place since December 2020. The Munich Security Conference would like to thank the Federal Foreign Office for making this report possible.