The Czar’s Gambit

No state has upended the international order more in this century than Russia. It has structurally destabilized its neighborhood and violated its
neighbors’ sovereignty.^[1] With its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it escalated these efforts and unleashed Europe’s deadliest war since 1945.^[2] According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, this war is not merely about Ukraine, but also about “the principles on which the new international order will be based.”^[3] Although Putin claims his envisioned order is one of “sovereign equality,” Russia’s imperial behavior suggest the opposite would be true, at least for smaller states.^[4] Furthermore, there are legitimate doubts regarding Russia’s ability to establish its desired order.

Russia rejects the US-led unipolar order that emerged after the Cold War, claiming that the US and its allies abuse their dominant position in it.^[5] It argues that this order is in decline and proposes multipolarity as a fairer alternative.^[6] Russia seeks to lay the groundwork for this through the BRICS grouping, whose 2024 Kazan summit it chaired and which recently welcomed Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates as new members.^[7] Russia also uses this format to court states in the so-called Global South, promising them greater international influence and capitalizing on their dissatisfaction with the current order.^[8]

As reasonable as Russia’s vision of equal and inclusive multipolarity may sound, the devil is in the details. Russia advocates for a multipolar order in which not states but “civilizations,”^[10] groups of states with supposedly close historical and cultural ties, are sovereign and equal.^[11] Only powerful “civilizational states” are entitled to sovereignty and leadership roles within their civilizations.^[12] Smaller states have no full sovereignty: They fall within a civilizational state’s sphere of influence.^[13] Russia self-identifies as a civilizational state and demands a dominant role in the world order:^[14] Its 2023 Foreign Policy Concept proclaims Russia’s “special position as a unique country-civilization” and its “historically unique mission aimed at maintaining global balance of power.”^[15]

This helps to explain its war of aggression against Ukraine. Since Russia regards Ukraine as part of a Russian-led civilization, it considers notions of equality and state-sovereignty inapplicable to Ukraine. Therefore, it deems its brutal invasion to be legitimate. Crucially, Russia’s claimed sphere of influence goes beyond Ukraine: It encompasses the entire former Soviet Union.^[16] Given Russia’s December 2021 proposal that NATO essentially withdraw from Eastern and Central Europe, it may even extend further.^[17] Russia’s envisioned world order, therefore, looks more like a new imperialist Concert of Europe than an inclusive multipolar order.^[18]

Russia’s capabilities do not always match its self-proclaimed world-leading status.^[20] Russia falls outside the global top ten of the largest economies, ranking behind Italy, Canada, and Brazil.^[21] Its declining population of 145.4 million is smaller than those of Pakistan, Nigeria, or Bangladesh.^[22] Its military spending is more impressive, however: at 428 billion US dollars (adjusted for purchasing power parity), it ranks third behind the US and China (Figure 2.2). Nevertheless, NATO’s estimated collective defense spending of 1.390 trillion US dollars (PPP)dwarfs this number (Figure 2.2). Only Russia’s nuclear arsenal – the world’s largest by number of warheads – is truly world leading.^[23] 
 

Once again, Russia lives up to its reputation as a geopolitical “honey badger,” posing a serious challenge to stronger rivals.^[33] In addition to its conventional war in Ukraine, it is menacing Europe through large-scale disinformation campaigns, election interference, sabotage attacks, assassination attempts, and nuclear saber-rattling.^[34] Through its “Africa Corps,” a reincarnation of the Wagner Group, Russia has expanded its geopolitical influence in various African states, often sidelining the US and European states.^[35] By employing a wide range of methods across various theaters, Russia puts constant pressure on its geopolitical adversaries.

For Russia, this strategy may yet pay off. The incoming administration in the US, a country that has been a key partner to Ukraine, has signaled it wants a swift, negotiated end to Russia’s war against Ukraine.^[36] If Ukraine’s partners pursue an end to the war at all costs, Russia may use this to obtain a favorable ceasefire agreement. For example, it could exploit this eagerness for peace to solidify its control over all occupied territories while preventing Ukraine from receiving NATO membership or other credible security guarantees. This would allow Russia to plan a new military effort to force all of Ukraine back into its claimed sphere of influence.^[37] The new US administration’s exact plan to end the war is not yet clear, however.^[38] If it takes a tougher line on Russia than expected, the latter’s future may look bleak.

 

The spiraling costs of the war against Ukraine have also limited Russia’s ability to project power beyond Ukraine, in a sign of increasing imperial overstretch.^[54] In 2023, Russia failed to help Armenia, its Collective Security Treaty Organization ally, when Azeri forces overran Nagorno-Karabakh, prompting Armenia to suspend its participation in the military alliance.^[55] To make matters worse, Russian air defense units accidentally shot down an Azeri civilian aircraft in December 2024, killing 38 people on board and straining relations with Azerbaijan.^[56] And Russia’s influence may wane in yet another Caucasus state as Georgia’s pro-Russian government is struggling to quell a popular uprising triggered by its decision to suspend EU accession talks and irregularities in the 2024 elections.^[57] Also in 2024, Russia was unable to prevent the sudden collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, which undid years of Russian military efforts to prop up its ally. Russia now risks losing its air and naval bases in Syria, which are vital for its operations in the Middle East and Africa.^[58]

Finally, Russia’s tech sector has suffered from repercussions of the war against Ukraine, marginalizing the country’s role in the global digital economy and geopolitical tech race. Foreign investment in Russian tech companies has dwindled.^[59] The labor shortage has disproportionally affected tech companies, as mostly young, highly educated Russians have fled abroad since 2022.^[60] In 2023, the international parent company of Russian tech giant Yandex divested from its Russian assets. This caused a split of the company in which it lost its AI-research department to an Amsterdam-based successor company.^[61]

Despite the self-confidence with which Russia proclaims its special position in the world order, a discrepancy between its self-image and its actual power base remains. Nonetheless, it has established itself as a global actor that challenges superior geopolitical rivals. Through a clever instrumentalization of its limited capabilities and a ruthless indifference toward the hardship it inflicts on the citizens of other states as well as its own, the Russian regime is able to play an outsized role in global affairs. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Russia to maintain this posture, however, as the costs of its geopolitical undertakings – especially its war against Ukraine – rise ever higher. Faced with economic uncertainty, imperial overstretch, and a highly attritional war, it is uncertain if Russia can continue its imperialist endeavors. This will in part depend on the international community, which has to decide whether it will give Russia space to do so or instead pressure it into respecting the rules-based international order.