Munich Security Index

Respondents  from the G7 and “BICS” countries (BRICS countries without Russia) share acute concerns about non-traditional risks but are increasingly polarized vis-à-vis geopolitical threats. While people from both the G7 and BICS countries worry about cyberattacks, economic crises, and environmental threats, views on the major powers diverge significantly. Compared to the first iteration of the Munich Security Index (MSI) in 2021, the risks posed by Russia and Iran have risen the most among all the indicators in the index among G7 countries, while the risk posed by China has remained relatively steady (Figure 1.8). In contrast, respondents in BICS countries consider China much less threatening today than they did four years ago, dropping 16 positions in the index since 2021, and continue to view Russia and Iran among the smallest risks in the index (Figure 1.9).

Since 2021, the MSC and Kekst CNC have collected data to answer core questions that help understand global risk perceptions: Do people think that the world is becoming a riskier place? Is there a global consensus on some of the grave risks that humanity is facing today? And how prepared do societies feel to tackle these threats? By combining five metrics, the index provides an in-depth view of how 11 countries view 33 major risks over time. This edition of the MSI is based on representative samples of 1,000 people from each G7 and BICS nation. The total sample thus amounts to 11,000 people. Polling was conducted between November 14 and November 29, 2024, using industry-leading online panels. The local surveys were carried out by trusted and reputable fieldwork partners in compliance with the European Society for Opinion and Market Research code. Respondents were selected according to stratified quotas for gender, age, residency, formal education, and income to ensure representativeness. The final data was then weighted to exactly match the quotas. The margin of error was 3.1 percent. Polling in autocracies always comes with difficulties, as respondents may not feel like they can freely express their views. The results from China in particular should therefore be interpreted with caution.

Following last year’s drop in global risk perceptions, the MSI registers aggregate increases in 20 risk indicators, while ten indicators saw overall decreases, and two remained steady (Figure 1.7). Following the election of US President Donald Trump, the perceived risk posed by the US increased sharply among the G7 countries – especially in Germany and Canada – as well as India, remained (roughly) the same in China and Brazil, and decreased in South Africa. While last year’s MSI showed somewhat improved perceptions of Russia, risk perceptions of Moscow in Canada, France, Germany, India, and the UK have increased. Heightened risk perceptions of the US and Russia are perhaps also connected to increased fears of trade wars and the use of nuclear weapons by an aggressor, respectively. Strikingly, only Germany and the UK see China as more of a risk than last year. Compared to last year, fears of the coronavirus pandemic, energy supply disruptions, and radical Islamic terrorism decreased significantly in most countries. 

Non-traditional risks nonetheless remain top concerns for respondents around the world. The three environmental risks included in the index – extreme weather and forest fires, the destruction of natural habitats, and climate change generally – rank as the aggregate first, second, and third greatest risks (Figure 1.6). In India, Brazil, and Italy, the top three risks are all environmental in nature. Cyberattacks are considered the fourth greatest risk in aggregate, ranking among the top three in the US, the UK, and Canada. Russia is the greatest concern in the UK, Canada (tied), and Germany (tied), and the second greatest in the US. China stands out as none of its top risks – among them the US, the use of biological weapons by an aggressor, and the use of nuclear weapons by an aggressor – feature among the top risks 
in any other country. 

The wider geopolitical competition continues to shape respondents’ views of other countries, but the conflict in the Middle East and the US elections also appear to have had an impact. All G7 countries see Iran, China, and Russia more as threats than allies, though none of them are seen as more of a threat than an ally in any of the BICS countries, with the exception of China in India and Iran in Brazil (Figure 1.10). Chinese respondents remain the only ones who see the US as more of a threat than an ally. Compared to last year, the standings of Israel, the US, and Russia fell significantly (Figure 1.11). At the other end of the spectrum, South Korea, Poland, Turkey, and the UK saw the biggest improvements.

Finally, respondents in the G7 and BICS countries strikingly diverge in how they perceive the trajectory of their country’s fortune (Figure 1.12). No G7 country except the US believes that they will be more secure and wealthy in ten years’ time, evincing a widespread sense of decline. In contrast, majorities in China and India believe that they will be in a better economic and security position in ten years, with respondents in Brazil and South Africa roughly evenly split.